OPINION
The recently concluded Masembeh by-election has sparked political debates across the country, with many attempting to use its outcome as an indicator for the 2026 presidential election. However, relying on this local election as a decisive factor in determining the national political would be a grave miscalculation.
Thus, the political dynamics of a by-election are often influenced by issues, voter turnout, and party mobilization efforts, which may not necessarily reflect the broader national sentiment.
Neither the National People’s Party (NPP) nor the United Democratic Party (UDP) can confidently claim victory in the 2026 election at this point. Both parties have their strengths and weaknesses, and their chances of forming the next government will largely depend on strategic political decisions, coalition-building, and leadership adjustments.
As the ruling party, the NPP has the advantage of incumbency, which grants it access to more resources and a nationwide political structure. However, this alone does not guarantee victory.
If President Adama Barrow wishes to secure re-election, he must reassess his political approach. A failure to address pressing national concerns, including economic hardship, governance issues, and public dissatisfaction, could weaken his chances. The NPP needs to re-strategize, improve its grassroots engagement, and adopt a governance style that resonates with the aspirations of the Gambian people.
On the other hand, the UDP remains a formidable opposition force with a strong support base. However, internal party dynamics and leadership restructuring could determine its success. The party must be willing to embrace new political strategies, address internal divisions, and present a united front if it aims to challenge the NPP effectively. Without significant reforms, the UDP risks facing similar electoral setbacks as in previous elections for decades.
Beyond the NPP and UDP, other political parties should not be underestimated. The rise of new political movements and the existing political parties like PDOIS, and GDC, with the potential formation of alternative coalitions could significantly shift the balance of power. A well-organized and strategically aligned coalition could pose a serious challenge to both the NPP and UDP, especially if it presents a credible candidate with a clear vision for national development.
Given the current political situation, it is evident that coalition politics will be a decisive factor in the 2026 presidential election. No single party appears strong enough to secure victory independently. The ability to form strategic alliances and appeal to a broader electorate will determine the outcome. Political parties must recognize this reality and begin positioning themselves accordingly before the 2026 National Election.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect The Fatu Networks editorial stance.
