The ongoing tariff war between the United States and China is a classic case of “when two elephants fight, the grass suffers.” The U.S. decision to escalate trade tensions with China—and the world at large—is not only unnecessary but also self-defeating. While both economies will feel the impact, the U.S. stands to lose more, hurting its consumers, risking economic recession, and potentially triggering political consequences for President Trump and the Republican Party. Meanwhile, Africa, as a collateral casualty, must draw critical lessons from this conflict by strengthening intra-African trade and boosting self-sufficiency.
The U.S. may have initiated this trade war, but its citizens will pay the heaviest price. Less than 3% of Chinese consumers rely on U.S.-China trade, whereas American consumers depend far more on affordable Chinese goods. Tariffs on Chinese imports will lead to higher prices for everyday products—electronics, clothing, and household items—directly hitting American wallets. Inflationary pressures will mount, and low-income families will suffer the most.
If this trade war persists, the U.S. economy could slide into a recession, further eroding public confidence in the Trump administration. With the 2026 midterm elections approaching, voters feeling the pinch of rising costs may punish the Republican Party at the polls. Trump’s aggressive trade policies may end up being a political miscalculation, costing him a second term. The 2026 midterm elections will be a big test for Trump and the Republican Party because all 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and 33 of the 100 seats in the U.S. Senate will be contested to determine the 120th United States Congress. Thirty-nine (39) state and territorial U.S. gubernatorial elections, as well as numerous state and local elections, will also be contested.
China has strategically diversified its trade partnerships through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), reducing its reliance on the U.S. market. Additionally, China’s vast domestic market provides a cushion against external shocks. The U.S., on the other hand, cannot easily replace China as a manufacturing hub. American businesses relying on Chinese supply chains will face disruptions, leading to job losses and reduced competitiveness.
African economies, heavily reliant on global trade dynamics, will feel the ripple effects of this conflict. Reduced Chinese demand for raw materials and fluctuating commodity prices could hurt African exporters. However, this should serve as a wake-up call for the continent.
The Gambia, like other African nations, must prioritize self-sufficiency by:
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Boosting Intra-African Trade – The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) must be fully leveraged to reduce dependency on foreign markets.
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Promoting Agricultural Self-Reliance – “Grow what you eat and eat what you grow” should not just be a slogan but a national policy.
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Ramping Up Domestic Manufacturing – Reducing imports by supporting local industries will create jobs and strengthen economic resilience.
Trump’s tariff war is a losing battle. Instead of weakening China, it will strain the U.S. economy, alienate voters, and accelerate China’s push for global trade alternatives. For Africa, the lesson is clear: dependence on external markets is risky. The time to build self-reliance is now.
The Gambia—and Africa as a whole—must take control of its economic destiny before another global trade conflict leaves it vulnerable again. The U.S.-China trade war is a stark reminder that true development begins at home.
TOMBONG SAIDY
UDP Administrative Secretary for Media and Communication
