By Lamin Gano
The aim of this blog post is to endorse a simple and credible formula on how to form a coalition between the Gambian opposition parties. But before that, it is worthwhile to highlight an issues of political reality and to debunk a myth and wishful thinking.
Our political reality is that eight opposition parties have been confirmed by the IEC to be registered and qualified to run for elections. However, only four of them seem to be in position to file a presidential candidate and to contest in the Dec polls. These are the UDP, PDOIS, NRP and the new comer GDC. As for the remaining four, the PPP has already stated that they will not be presenting a candidate while the leaders of the remaining three (GMC, GDPD and NCP) are either not physically on the ground or are not seen doing any preparations to contest.
The myth I would like to debunk is the view held and expressed by many people that elections cannot remove Jammeh from office even if the opposition forms a coalition. Their argument is that if elections could not remove Jammeh in 1996, 2001, 2006 and 2011 then it would also not work against him in 2016.
My contention, however, is that after 22 years of APRC rule characterized by complications, difficulties, problems and visions that have turned into illusions, Yahya Jammeh has reached his culmination point and the majority of Gambians have now reached their fed up point. This twin effects of Gambians being fed up on one hand and Jammeh reaching his expiry date on the other hand is what will make the 2016 presidential elections different from the others.
A wishful thinking and a big distraction from reality is the view held by some people that Jammeh could be forced out of power before December by other means such as a popular uprising, a coup d’état, a Senegalese intervention, an assassination or a normal visit by Malakal Mauti (the angel of death) like the way of Sanni Abachi of Nigeria in 1998. It is my postulation that Jammeh will wake up in State House on 01 Dec 2016 and he would cast his vote!!!!
Now to come to the essence of my post, I really do believe that there is a very good chance for the opposition parties to not only arrive at a coalition but a winning coalition for that matter. A simple, straightforward and legitimate way is to use the formula of a convention as proposed by the PDOIS party. The claim that the idea of a convention would not work because each representative will simply vote for their own respective candidates thereby producing a stalemate is baseless. A convention can and will work because the representatives of parties like the PPP with no presidential candidates will participate in the convention and therefore prevent a stalemate.
There are many advantages to the approach of a convention. One is that whoever emerges as the leader is undoubtedly the legitimate choice of the combined opposition. But perhaps the biggest advantage is that that such an approach will serve as a tool for effective conflict prevention and reconciliation post Jammeh. Any candidate who wins a convention and then the ultimate elections would have passed two solid tests of majority endorsements thereby giving him/her a solid platform to lead. Such a consensus will also serve as a safeguard from our country descending into post-election violence.
I was privilege to visit Kenya on a study tour shortly after their post-election violence of 2007. We really cannot afford to let our beautiful country follow any path of violence and instability. I therefore fervently hope that our opposition leaders will arrive at a coalition sooner than later. With the elections around the corner, it is high time we put the issue of a coalition to a permanent rest so that we can focus on the uphill task of campaigning and winning the hearts and minds of the civil servants, APRC supporters and our men and women in uniform. I might even volunteer as the spokesman for security service personnel; a job that I have done for seven years and very familiar with!!!!
Long Live the Republic of the Gambia and long live our peace, stability and good neighbourliness!!!
Author Gano
Posted on May 21, 2016
